By gawd they did it. They actually did it.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has finally raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Ending the world’s only negative rates regime. Truly a historic pivot.
The BOJ raised its short-term interest rates to around 0% to 0.1% from -0.1%. The BOJ also announced the abolition of its radical yield curve control policy for 10-year Japanese government bonds, which the central bank has employed to target longer-term interest rates by buying and selling bonds as necessary.
The BOJ said it would stop purchases of exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITS) and will slowly reduce its purchases of corporate bonds, aiming to stop this practice in about a year.
BUT the central bank will continue its purchases of Japanese government bonds with broadly the same amount as before.
This decision to raise rates and step into ‘normalization’ came days after Rengo, Japan’s largest federation of trade unions, said ongoing “shunto” wage negotiations between Japan Inc and unionized employees have so far yielded a provisional weighted average 3.7% spike in base pay. This was even more robust than last year’s gains, which were the steepest in three decades. Adding to inflationary pressures. BOJ policy makers expect higher salaries to lead to a virtuous spiral with domestic demand fueling inflation.
So how did Japanese markets react?
The Japanese Nikkei held the current higher low and continues to rally higher.
Readers know I am long the Nikkei. In fact, in my previous article I spoke about how the BOJ raising rates may cause the large amount of Japanese money overseas to come back and potentially enter the Japanese markets. Currently, the rise seems more to do with foreign money running in due to the weaker Yen.
Big money like Buffett are bullish on Japan.
Japanese bond yields fell and it is likely because the BOJ will continue to buy bonds to the tune of 6 trillion yen per month even though they would abolish yield curve control to cap longer term rates. Nobody is expecting a sharp rise in yields.
And then the Yen…
Even with a rate hike, the Yen continues to weaken heading back to the 152 zone where the BOJ may potentially intervene to protect the Yen.
Why is the Yen weakening? Well, the BOJ is not very hawkish.
Governor Ueda said that a ‘rapid’ increase in the pace of hikes is unlikely given the economic outlook for the year. This disappointed some Yen bulls. Ueda did not commit to a timeline for a shrinkage of the BOJ’s balance sheet, nor did he give any clear signs on any further rate hikes.
The BOJ cautioned in its initial release it’s not about to embark on aggressive rate hikes, saying that it “anticipates that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being.”
However, just like the Fed, if those inflation numbers begin to tip up, the BOJ may be forced to act.
Here is what HSBC’s global head of fixed income research, Steven Major, had to say:
“Whether the Bank of Japan decides to hike rates a smidgeon is not what matters at the March or April meetings. It will be the totality of the announced policy shift that we will focus on, along with what it does to expectations for more of the same,”
“Something big in Japan is about to happen,”
Echoes what I said last year when I warned readers that the Bank of Japan is the most consequential central bank. If Japanese rates go up, Japanese money could leave foreign bonds and come back to Japan leading to a rise in rates in those foreign countries. In a way, because of the BOJ’s negative rate policy, they effectively provided yield curve control overseas with Japanese money being forced to look at foreign debt for yield. Remember, it is Japan which holds the most US Treasurys, not China.
Things are definitely shaping up to be very interesting.
What has surprised many investors is the fact that the BOJ was thought to have held rates because other central banks’ next move was to LOWER interest rates. This way the BOJ could just say see we don’t need to hike since other central banks are cutting again.
Once again, this is all about inflation. The US has had two months of inflation surprises leading to some debate on when the Fed will cut rates.
Oh and this has happened:
Oil has broken out which will lead to inflationary surprises around the world. For Japan it could be a double whammy. Remember Japan imports its oil. The Yen is weak against the USD and the USD is the Petrodollar used for energy payments.
Even though Ueda-san has not given any details on further rate hikes… this rise in oil could lead to surprises not just in Japan.
This sets us up for a crazy Spring 2024 when it comes to monetary policy. Buckle up!