US Stock Markets looked great in the early morning. We had big moves in Nvidia, Macy’s, Amazon, Google and a few other big techs. And then this happened:
Above is the 5 minute chart of the S&P 500. A big momentum sell that came out of nowhere.
You guys know me, I like to focus on the LONGER timeframes. If I don’t get a long term candle breakout, then it is a no go for me. This gets really important when we are testing major resistances or support zones. A little patience goes a long way.
Above is the 4 hour chart of the S&P 500. Or you can look at the daily chart, it is your choice. In a recent Market Moment post, I discussed the major trendline channels that you can see on my chart. We are still ranging near the top of the upper channel line. The 4 hour chart above makes the resistance quite obvious. We have just been waiting for a 4 hour strong candle above to confirm a breakout and a move higher. I still stand with the same analysis: I would like to see a pullback to perhaps the 4560-4600 zone, before seeing another leg higher in Stock Markets sometime in December.
The Nasdaq looks similar. In the morning, it looked like a breakout was occurring, but then we reversed. Once again, this is why I support team ‘wait the break and close’. It trapped a lot of bulls. We will wait to see in the upcoming days if the Nasdaq can try to climb and breakout, or if markets pullback down to 16,000. The next 4 hour close at 10am PST will give us a better signal to determine the direction.
BUT there is some hope here. If there are two markets I would be watching like a hawk, it would be the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000. Here is why.
The Dow Jones is pulling back to retest the breakout zone of 35,500. Remember, we retested this before when we initially broke out. This is an important flip zone. A break below this level would not bode too well for other US markets.
Now this is the chart I think will determine what Stock Markets will do. If you trade US Cannabis stocks or other small caps, I think you will be watching this chart more closely. The US Small Cap Index has been ranging since February of 2021, while other US Markets were making new record highs. We FINALLY got the breakout on November 1st 2021. No retest of the breakout zone until now. Buying right now would be a typical breakout retest play. Let’s all watch to see how this daily candle closes today. If in the upcoming days we get a large wick or a green candle close, then we can confidently say that buyers are stepping in and defending this support.
TLT and the VIX are two charts to watch for risk off and on. Seeing some fear on the VIX. Bonds get a bit tricky. We had a nice bid into bonds, and now we are seeing some sell off. If further sell off on these charts occur, Stock Markets will recover, and likely range just like Monday of this week.
I want to leave you off the charts of Oil, both the West Texas and the Crude variety. It seems like a deeper pullback is on the cards. Oil has been ranging in a pattern, and the breakdown was only just confirmed yesterday. Today is the retest day. As Oil pulled back up to retest the breakdown zone, sellers are piling in. If Oil drops further, it will impact the Stock Markets. A weaker Oil puts pressure on energy, but also on the Bank stocks (who have loaned a lot to Oil companies). Both sectors are large and will impact Stock Markets as a whole.
In summary, I just want to say my early analysis still stands. The channel trendlines are providing resistance. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq cannot climb and breakout higher. I would like to see a deeper pullback to our major support levels before buying that dip. Price action on the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000, specifically them failing to hold current support, would increase the probability of a drop in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Pressure on Oil would also impact all markets as a whole.