On a long enough timeline, all public company news moves from good to bad, important to unimportant, and vice versa.

A couple of years ago, the news that Emerita Resources’ (EMO.V) court case in Spain would happen in March 2025 saw shareholders hitting the sell button en masse.

Yes, it looked likely the $25 billion zinc-copper-lead project at the heart of the case would eventually fall into EMO’s hands, and yes, it would be the culmination of years of drawn out legal process finbally proving them right but “2025? Why, that’s AGES away!”

So shareholders would:

• [sell]
• [sell]
• [sell]

Fast forward a handful of months and, what do you know, now 2025 is close. Now, the Aznalcóllar mine saga is coming to what should reasonably be considered its conclusion, and that conclusion may drop one of the largest copper projects in Europe right in Emerita Resources’ lap – by default.

So now shareholders are all:

• [Buy]
• [Buy]
• [Buy]

Here’s the background on the case:

• Tender Process: In 2014, the Government of Andalusia initiated a public tender for the Aznalcóllar project. Emerita was one of two companies that qualified for the final bidding round.
• Award Controversy: The project was awarded to Minorbis-Grupo Mexico, despite Emerita’s assertion that its bid was superior. Emerita alleged irregularities and requested a criminal investigation into the tender process.
• Criminal Investigation: Following a detailed police investigation, the courts found evidence of gross negligence and misconduct by the awarding panel. The scope of criminal activity was expanded to include embezzlement, bribery, influence peddling, and fraud.
• Court Rulings: Multiple levels of the Spanish judiciary, including the Appellate Court of Seville, ruled unanimously in favor of Emerita’s position, indicating that crimes were committed during the tender process.
• Administrative Proceedings: The Administrative Court of Andalusia agreed to suspend its resolution until the criminal courts rendered a decision, ensuring that evidence from the criminal trial could be utilized in the administrative case.
• Current Status: In November 2022, the Provincial Court of Seville has scheduled the criminal trial to commence on March 3, 2025.

The court case is scheduled to take 40 days and will see 16 defendants on the dock facing charges. It’s kind of a big deal.

The evidence discovered in just getting to this point is substantial.

From the TriplesInvesting Substack:

The Aznalcóllar mine’s tender process, initiated in 2014, has been marred by controversy from the start. Emerita, one of three original bidders, claims the tender was not only mishandled but outright manipulated to favor Minorbis, a subsidiary of the Magdaleno brother’s Magtel Group. This entity was cobbled together just a month before the tender, with no prior mining experience and only €3,000 in initial capital​.

The evidence, as presented in court documents, is damning: the tender was awarded despite clear signs of foul play, including improper influence exerted by top officials.

According to the investigation, certain officials allegedly had a personal direct hand in securing the tender for Minorbis. The documents reveal that certain officials allegedly were actively involved in drafting bid-related documents and received copies of Minorbis’s technical proposal before it was even officially submitted—a clear breach of transparency rules​.

The details that have already come to light are bonkers.

In short, Minorbis TOLD Emerita that they had corrupted the process while it was still going, and offered to let EMO be a part of it.

Court documents detail an encounter on April 11, 2014, when a representative of Minorbis approached Emerita’s team with a bold proposition: to merge both projects to ensure a joint win in the tender.

It is alleged that to back up his claims of insider influence, the representative declared that they held sway over key decision-makers. The claim was immediately followed by a prediction that the Secretary General of the Ministry of Innovation would contact Emerita’s team within minutes. Sure enough, a call occurred confirming the representative’s claims of insider coordination. This call, acknowledged by the Secretary General of the Ministry of Innovation in subsequent legal proceedings, suggests a deeply embedded network of corruption that bypassed the established tender protocols and tilted the playing field.

The inappropriate nature of this call, made directly from the Ministry to Emerita’s representative, indicates more than just insider information—it suggests direct interference aimed at coercing Emerita into accepting a rigged process.

That’s BANANAS.

To my way of thinking, there’s no chance EMO loses this case.

And that’s important because, under Spanish law, if a crime is committed in awarding a public tender, the offending bid must be disqualified, and the tender awarded to the next qualified bidder. Emerita, being the only other qualified bidder, anticipates a favorable outcome.

But that’s not their only lottery ticket. In fact, the company has been busy building out other projects – successfully, I might add.

Emerita’s current market cap is $164m, a lot of which comes from its ongoing work at the Iberian Belt West (IBW) project, which is unrelated to the Aznalcóllar.

According to the company, phase II exploration is nearing completion and will go toward a revised NI 43-101 resource estimate.

“Base metal recoveries are very positive, exceed published recoveries for the actively producing mines in the Iberian pyrite belt. Metallurgical test results of phase 2 indicate that copper, lead and zinc concentrates can be produced at commercial grades from both deposits. This represents an improvement relative to phase 1, where a zinc concentrate and a semi-bulk copper-lead concentrate was produced.”

Interesting to note that the La Romanera patch in this project lso features gold and silver.

La Romanera metallurgical test phase 2 normalized data:

• Cu concentrate: 20.1 per cent Cu grade, 4.12 g/t Au, 1,642 g/t Ag and 0.9 per cent mass pull, 40.3-per-cent Cu recovery;
• Pb concentrate: 34.3 per cent Pb and 2.9 per cent Cu grade, 2.88 g/t Au, 494 g/t Ag and 2.6 per cent mass pull, 58.4-per-cent Pb and 17.7-per-cent Cu recoveries;
• Zn concentrate: 52.6 per cent Zn grade, 1.25g/t Au, 138 g/t Ag and 5.0 per cent mass pull, 79.5-per-cent Zn recovery;
• Total precious metal recoveries: 12.3 per cent Au, 46.4 per cent Ag.

Credit the company for not sitting back on the lawsuit and, instead, ensuring that EMO is a company worth investing in, regardless of what happens at the judicial bench, but should the judges rule in the company’s favour in the coming year, this ticker should be a rollercoaster ride.

So while the rest of the mining industry slumps about telling investors things are grim, and that financing is hard, and woe is me, Emerita Resources has multiple bets strewn across the table, they’ve had no problem finding finance, based on recent announcements of lending arrangements secured, and a massive high upside due within forty days of this coming March.

The share chart is strong, shows plenty of volatility and volume, and if you’re tyechnically minded, don’t shy away from going throughg recent drill results.

We’ve been saying it for two years – there’s something big building here.

— Chris Parry

FULL DISCLOSURE: No commercial interest in the company