The EV space is rife with intrigue rivalling even the most complex soap opera storylines. With more villains and secrets than a Kushner family reunion, it’s easy to get lost in the pomp and circumstance of malicious marketing machinations. Where are the real opportunities? It’s time once more to step into the breach.
Arcimoto (FUV.Q) piled on more insider action this week as General Counsel & Corporate Secretary, John Dorbin Jr., Chief Strategy Officer, Jesse Fittipaldi, and CFO, Douglas Campoli, picked up 4,500 options for common stock exercisable on October 07, 2022, at a conversion price of $10.26 USD per option. The option agreements call for partial vestment of shares on the date exercisable and then monthly increments for the remainder over the following two years. The options are already in the money, so doesn’t indicate a high appetite for risk on behalf of insiders. However, the company provided a Q3 update for stakeholders on Wednesday which reported the EV manufacturer had record vehicle deliveries of 64 customer vehicles and a production total so far of 78 vehicles. Totals for the quarter are scheduled to be published in November. Arcimoto also stated it had made significant progress on defining cost-down programs for both individual vehicles and the platform. The company is also amid its first full quarter of Arcimoto-owned rental operations in San Diego and Eugene. It is using the gathering data to improve its rental model. If I am not incorrect, the EV manufacturer is growing out of its sandbox image with the first production door installation on the FUV of an early Evergreen customer with more installations to follow in Q4 and beyond. This bodes well for sales sustainability and growth. Its attempt to service businesses with a cargo carrying FUV solution was a success as its pilot flatbed vehicles won the enthusiastic support of local Eugene businesses. Finally, Arcimoto is prepping to launch a marketing campaign entitled “The Ride of the Arconauts”, an on-going roadshow that begins it promotional tour for the company on Saturday at the Thunderhill Raceway in Willows, California. If you want to catch up with the tour, you can sign up for notifications when the Ride makes it to your area. Pressure from short sellers continues with 33.04% of the float shorted. Acrimoto has a lot to accomplish, but at least it is trying to make the right decisions. Will it make it over the finish line? The company slipped 1.97% over the last five days to trade at $10.47 per share for a market cap of $402.34 million.
Canoo (GOEV.Q) pulled up 6.27% this week to arrive at $7.10 per share. What I said in my last update regarding the company still stands. It shuffled off a small fraction of its short interest to sit at 31.24% of its float. It is still far from emerging from the EV woods and may only be playing a war of attrition with short selling naysayers. WallStreetBets remains an ineffective force in Canoo’s market story. Is this the end of meme investment? I wish. As I said already, I like a narrower scope of the company’s vision and when it can pull away from its recreational production distractions, I think it has a real shot. Course, that must happen first, and change isn’t something that comes easy to a SPAC entity as it starts public trading with more money than brains/performance. The EV manufacturer recovered some of its loses on the boards this week, but its value increase isn’t an indication of a sustained upward trend. I’m going to reserve judgement on this one, but it’s still not getting any of my hard-earned dollars until it has proven its worthiness. That said, it’s your money. Do your due diligence!
ElectraMeccanica (SOLO.Q) edged up 2.07% this week to trade at $3.45 per share but its short interest has climbed into a relatively uncomfortable area. Now 17.79% short interest isn’t anything like Arcimoto’s dizzying 33.04%, but it is still worrisome. However, the EV manufacturer moved to solidify its market when it announced Wednesday that it had inked a strategic agreement with Robert Bosch LLC, a leading developer of all-things sustainable from econ-friendly appliances to ergonomic hand tools and EV connected mobility solutions. The deal involves the creation of a service network of independent automobile repairs shops approved by Bosch. The resulting Bosch Car Service Network will handle the service and maintenance of EM’s flagship SOLO EV throughout the western United States with the aim of expanding the network nationwide. This pilot program, if successful, will cement EM’s operational strength to support its affordably priced and right-sized mobility solution. As I said before, the company’s success is based on its ability to sell its space thrifty EVs to a market used to wasting interior roominess as a sign of affluence. Still, I like EM more than most. If it can continue to hit its milestones like executing on its production agreement with Zongshen Industrial Group, it could transform into a sustainable going concern. EM currently has a market cap of $396.56 million.
Fisker (FSR) continues to battle short sellers but is suffering less with only 28.02% of its float shorted versus the 30.21% reported in my last update. The company’s recent announcement of creating a U.K. specialty engineering division under the leadership of industry veteran, David King, held some sway with the investment community and served to buoy the EV manufacturer on the boards. Still not enough to make up for last week’s valuation loss, Fisker remains a risk until it can secure its hold on the customized luxury EV market. A small market indeed, but a lucrative one with potentially large margins. Foxconn’s production agreement has yet to provide the foundation for Fisker’s place in the EV market, so I am not throwing any money at this one until manufacturing promises become more than words on paper and create positive material change for the company. That said, Fisker is lining up its ducks, it just must leave the starting blocks. The EV manufacturer currently trades at $14.43 per share, up 2.78% from last week, for a market cap of $4.26 billion.
GreenPower Motor Company (GPV.V) made back some ground from last week’s market slip to sit at $13.82 CAD per share. My dyslexic reading of the company’s name stands corrected so it will be easier to find on the charts. My reading of their financial state remains in play, they have played their cards well running lean with money in the till. As mentioned, the crutch of subsidized sales is industry-wide and as GPMC ramps up production and optimizes its technologies and supply chain, it will become less reliant on government incentives to put drivers behind the wheel of its transit and cargo solutions. The Forest River partnership is a positive for GPMC and if it continues to build its customer base as it seems to be doing, the EV manufacturer, could secure a sustainable slice of the global electric bus market, expected to reach 600,000 units by 2026 for a CAGR of 25%. With experienced no nonsense management, a clear mandate, and growing sales, I like GPMC’s chances. It seems the rest of the investment community agrees with me as the company has an incredibly low short interest, which is uncommon in this burgeoning sector. The EV manufacturer currently has a reasonable market cap of $383.40 million with a modest 21.89 million shares outstanding.
Kandi Technologies (KNDI.Q) still doesn’t have a lot to say since its September press release announcing final payment from Fengsheng sale. The only thing I can add is the mounting economic problems in China. It seems the entire real estate sector is about to fall into a hole. It isn’t just Evergrande, multiple major real estate developers have come forward to announced they too are unable to meet bond payments. How far will this go and are power constraints and supply chain issues even coming close to ending for Chinese EV manufacturers? All we can do is wait for the company to announce its next round of earnings in November. Kandi currently trades at $4.43 USD per share, up 1.14% from last week, for a market cap of $336.28 million.
Li Auto (LI.Q) continues to climb on the heels of its September production update announced at the beginning of the month. It too is subject to China’s financial worries and the company must take measures to ensure it can bridge supply chain gaps. Li Auto’s sales network is relatively expansive and may keep it from being wildly impacted if Evergrande goes under. The EV manufacturer’s problem as I stated before is optics and let’s face it, current and future trade tiffs between the U.S. and the CCP. However, I still like what I see. Again, do your due diligence! Li Auto rose 5.22% this week to $29.45 per share for a market cap of $30.69 billion.
Lordstown Motors (RIDE.Q) still rides a relatively flat line in the markets and is hampered by a significant short interest of 24.42%. The company announced late last week, it had appointed Adam B. Kroll executive vice president and CFO. Kroll will replace the interim CFO, Rebecca Roof when she exits the position at the end of the year. It seems fitting after Morgan Stanley’s downgrade, the company appointed Kroll, who has 25 years of financial, operational, and capital markets experience which included serving as an investment banker at JP Morgan focusing on automotive sector. However, the company is in full-on damage control mode and until the Lordstown’s flagship Endurance pickup rolls off the assembly line and vindicates the company, it has mountains of ill-perception and previous bad faith to overcome. Not a favorite. However, do your due diligence! The EV manufacturer currently trades at $5.14 per share for a market cap of $909.67 million.
Lucid Group (LCID.Q) had a bumpy ride this week to land just 1.27% down at $24.01 per share. The company announced last week it would delist all its outstanding public warrants traded on the NASDAQ under the symbol “LCIDW” by market open October 13, 2021. This move cleans up approximately 44.4 million warrants privately placed to the sponsor of the company’s predecessor. In other news, the company announced that its EV will be the first production car in the U.S. to utilize a purpose-built laser sensor known as lidar. The system will be called DreamDrive Pro and will make the Lucid Air capable of self-parking, freeway driving assist and low speed traffic assistance. Unlike Tesla and its ridiculous and inapplicable grading system for its criminally mislabeled FSD, Lucid actively scans its drivers with an infrared camera which tracks head position, gaze and blinking as well as pressure sensors on the wheel to determine if the driver is incapacitated or sitting in the back seat. In emergencies, the vehicle will automatically come to a complete stop, instead of crashing into emergency vehicles or cement pillars like a Tesla. Lucid remains a high-end option for EV customers and won’t be affordable for you and I until at least 2030, but it is better designed, assembled and has better battery tech than most, including Tesla. I like this one a lot. Be sure to talk to an investment professional and do your homework before making any portfolio decisions. Lucid has a market valuation of $38.86 billion, which is still pretty high, but not as egregious as TSLA.
Nikola (NKLA.Q) came forward with news at the end of last week announcing a collaboration with PGT Trucking, a leader in the flatbed transportation industry, to advance electric drive heavy-duty transportation. The collaboration includes an LOI where PGT agrees to lease 100 Nikola Tre heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) upon the successful completion of a Nikola Tre FCEV demonstration program. If everything goes according to plan, deliveries of the FCEVs will commence in 2023 when Nikola begins commercial production at its Coolidge, Arizona manufacturing plant. Good news for the company, but its an LOI, which if you are not aware, stands for Letter of Intent. Not binding and considering how the company has been dragging its ass to date, I don’t know if they will meet the deadline to the satisfaction of PGT. All of this is pomp and circumstance until the FCEV manufacturer literally puts rubber to the road and backs up its production promises with workable products. Everything remains in validation stage now and the company hasn’t a good track record to fulfilling projections. That said, I’m not going to bury them, I’m just not going to herald a victory yet. Especially since the company is swimming in 31.41% of short interest. Remember to do your homework and talk to an investment professional! Nikola currently trades at $11.19 per share, up 3.95% over last week for a total valuation of $4.65 billion.
Nio (NIO) remains quiet and is under the same pressures as its Chinese EV counterparts, despite reporting a strong Q3 so far. The company currently trades at $36.28 per share for a market cap of $59.38 billion.
Tesla (TSLA.Q) continues to baffle the investment community with stacks of bravado, poorly assembled vehicles, and an endless stream of bullshit. Elon Musk’s persona as a lonely genius is one of complete fabrication afforded to the billionaire class. This may come as news to you, but Edison didn’t invent the light bulb. Forty research scientists in his commercial lab DID. The narrative that these patent trolls have independently revolutionized their markets and the world is as much of a lie as Trump’s business acumen. Musk’s early success is based on the lunatic dot.com market surge, his father’s money, and hard-earned taxpayer dollars. It wasn’t until he took his ill-gotten gains and rolled into Paypal that someone sniffed out his fraudulent behaviour and gave him a well-deserved boot which unfortunately resulted in a billion-dollar golden parachute for the tech huckster. When Musk oiled his way into Tesla, he binged on taxpayer dollars again and after he had his fill, he sought to shut the innovation door behind him by calling for an end to direct government support of EV start-ups and lobbying for the implementation of carbon tax credits which he could leverage against traditional auto manufacturers while leaving his competitors in the dark. He eagerly drank from the government trough yet again when Covid hit and once again, when he got his fill, he called for the end of government assistance. The man is a walking malevolent contradiction, not a genius or even a legitimate market leader. Musk ‘innovated’ his industry with existing technologies wrapped up in sexy red shorts. His only design contributions to Tesla, involved the ridiculous unergonomic door handles that freeze in cold weather or lock when there is a fire in the car. I’m not even going to get into the insanity of his flange-catching mechanism at SpaceX. Part of Tesla’s supposed value proposition and Musk’s defense against corporate malfeasance concerning his purchase of Solar City fizzled unceremoniously when he admitted last week the EV manufacturer’s solar segment was dead in the water and had not lived up to expectation. Still the organ grinds on and investors lap up the lies, but the correction is coming, and it will decimate shareholders. Musk is an affront to best business practices. Do as you will.
Workhorse Group (WKHS.Q) faces even more allegations of wrong-doing when the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that two republicans running to replace Rob Portman in the U.S. Senate, separately called for a closer look into approximately $60 million in stock sales by top Workhorse execs. According to the article, top company management are alleged to have dumped shares when they first understood the company’s U.S. Postal bid was going south before going public with the news. Workhorse claims nothing illegal took place when executives sold their stocks and options through 10b5-1 plans, but coincidentally changed up its leadership one day after the Enquirer report was published. The storm is building for Workhorse and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up, as company officials vow to vigorously defend themselves in mounting shareholder lawsuits. Add an SEC investigation and you have a company on spin cycle. Understandably, short interest increased to 40.82% of the float. This hot potato is going nuclear. Currently Workhorse is trading at $6.54 per share for a market cap of $810.62 million.
XL Fleet Corp (XL). Nothing to say until the company pipes up or releases its Q3 financials in November. Currently XL Fleet trades at $5.56 per share for a total market valuation of $767.91 million.
Xpeng (XPEV) rose 3.69% this week. I like the company, but as I said before, China’s economy is in for a nasty reckoning. Would love to see Xpeng pull through and take Tesla to the cleaners. The company trades at $39.39 per share for a market cap of $34.14 billion. Again, high for its performance, but much less than Tesla.
Now back to the traditional auto makers:
GM (GM) managed to settle with LG over the Bolt battery fiasco, getting its supplier to agree to pay GM up to $1.9 billion. The agreement could completely offset GM’s costs for recalling all Chevrolet Bolts since they began production of the EVs back in 2016. The win helped heal GM’s wounds after failing to meet analyst expectations in Q2. Despite what’s happened GM continues to refer to LG as a valued and respected supplier. To put this affair into context, so far 13 vehicles out of some three million Bolts sold, have caught fire due to battery manufacturing defects.
Ford (F) is diving deeper into its EV pursuits. The company announced in an Automotive News interview this week that it is sending out EV charge angels to monitor and troubleshoot its vast charging network. Unlike Tesla, Ford is leveraging an independently operated charging network of over 13,500 charging stations. Without the sole control that Tesla maintains, Ford needs to actively ensure that all its FordPass Charging Network adheres to quality control standards. The company plans to carry out this task with a fleet of specially equipped Ford Mach-Es. The purpose is to check the stations and see where and why they fail. Ford hopes to wrap up this tour before its release of the EV F-150 Lightning pickup in 2022. The company is also bringing its resources back home with an unannounced departure back in May of Alexandra Ford English from the Rivian board as the EV truck maker readies for its IPO.
Toyota is catching flak despite reporting a world record range of 845 miles for its fuel cell powered Mirai. Apparently even though the car can go the distance and then some, the availability of hydrogen for customers is spotty at best. Okay, they drive more than most EVs, but if you can’t fuel up at the end of your drive, how useful is the distance record?
Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess has seen the writing on the wall and during a supervisory board meeting this week, told attendees that the company needs to speed up its EV conversion or face the prospect of losing 30,000 jobs. Tesla’s upcoming presence in Germany has lit a fire under Diess as Tesla plans to drown the world in shitty product before its competition can put good stuff out the door. The race is on.
Nissan. Nothing new to report.
Well, my fingers hurt, and my mind is reeling. It breaks my heart that there is a chance Tesla may defy reality if the market doesn’t regain its sanity, because if Musk finally gets away with his shenanigans, it will only spell economic disaster for the rest of us down the road. That said, do your research, identify your picks, and make this a better world. Good luck to all!
–Gaalen Engen