We have an interesting set up on XRP. The crypto was looking really decent over the weekend. We had a nice breakout, and I was expecting it to be much higher today. But instead, we are getting the pullback/retest portion of the breakout…hopefully for the XRP bulls.
Crypto’s are taking a hit right now. Even though today is Bitcoin Day and the HUGE news that El Salvador has become the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The country even bought 200 Bitcoin.
Most financial news outlets were attributing the rise in XRP as investors and traders looking for value. An alt coin rally for cheaper coins with smart contract capabilities. That is all well and good, but I focus on market structure. Uptrends and downtrend do not last forever. Price action takes a break, and reversals occur. But in the case of these crypto charts, we still have the possibility of remaining in an uptrend depending on the next few days candle closes.
Before we start with Bitcoin, I want to just highlight some general Market stuff which is important for crypto investors and traders. Recently, we have seen crypto’s moving with stock markets. But not just crypto’s, the same has applied for Gold too. When markets move up, Gold and Bitcoin hold or move up. When markets drop, Bitcoin and Gold do as well. Whenever we are in a risk off environment, we don’t see money run into these Dollar alternative assets. We see money move into Bonds, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.
Markets are currently red or flat, and I fear there could be some more downside. This is why:
The US Dollar chart is indicating a reversal on the 4 hour chart after a long downtrend. I have a horizontal line drawn here at 92.50. Depending on the next few candle closes, we will have our answer on whether or not a new uptrend is beginning, which would not bode well for US stocks and crypto’s priced in US Dollars.
If we close above 92.50, we take out the previous lower high. This would mean the downtrend is officially over. But as you can see from my chart above, sellers are stepping in around the lower high. A very important zone for us.
To add some more drama to all of this, the Japanese Yen is looking ready to reverse and move higher as well. But the break is what we need for the trigger to confirm this. We can rest easy for now.
How Bitcoin moves generally impacts most of the crypto’s. Although when it drops or ranges, some alt coins rip.
Currently Bitcoin is back below $50,000 but it isn’t something I would be too worried about right now. Notice how before we climbed above $48,000 there were weeks of range. So this breakout was very important. And as we know from breakout structure, what was once resistance now becomes new support. Price tends to pullback to retest this zone before continuing higher.
This is what I think we are seeing right now. And I am sure the crypto bulls love to hear this. If we get a daily close below $48,000 this week though, then we are setting up for a new downtrend, perhaps taking us back to below $40,000 levels.
The XRP chart is actually looking worse now, than it did before I began writing this Market Moment. A big sell off today. But there is still some hope.
Same breakout structure applies: $1.30 which was once resistance now becomes support. Yesterday’s candle confirmed a breakout, and a nice path to $1.60, but the retest isn’t going to plan. The bears have control. We are sliding BELOW the $1.30 zone, and if we close the daily candle like this today, we have a fakeout or a false breakout. The bulls are trapped and likely sell their positions if they are approaching this as a trade.
The hope is time. We have a lot of time. Enough time for bulls to regain control and push prices back above $1.30 to confirm a daily close above this important support. For those that trade stock markets, we see this a lot. Especially with the market indices. Where it looks like the S&P is about to tank because it is breaking below a support level…only to see prices nudged up and close back above trapping the bears. Hence why I advocate patience and awaiting candles to CLOSE.
If XRP fails to hold, then we turn our attention to the $1.00-$1.05 zone which is our next support. $1.00 is a very key psychological support zone so we would want to hold above that for further momentum going forward. A lot of this will depend on a crypto bull market, and for that, we must watch to see if Bitcoin holds above $48,000 on a retest or not.