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Market Moment

Soybeans

Soybeans Breakout: My China Trade Deal Play

The Chinese said that they would increase their purchases of US agriculture products as part of the phase 1 trade deal. Reports came out earlier this week, that the Chinese would halt purchases of US agriculture as a way to retaliate to the US condemnation. This would jeopardize the phase 1 trade deal if confirmed.

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US Dollar

How Did We Play the US Dollar Drop? USDCAD Target Sniped!

The US Dollar (DXY) has been ranging between two zones for some time. We were teased with a breakout on Friday last week, but that break was not confirmed until this week Monday. There were signs of this eventually happening. This could be seen on the chart structure for the USDCAD and EURUSD.

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Airline Stocks

Airline Stocks Trigger Buy Signals

Airline stocks have been in an extended down trend with multiple lower highs and lower lows. Prices then began to range, or consolidate failing to make new lower lows. Even with bad earnings, price never fell which indicates that all the bad news has ALREADY been priced in.

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Hong Kong

Hong Kong Dollar: A Free Money Trade?

Both of these plays could be much more longer term. The charts do look good, and the geopolitical environment is not very great for Hong Kong. It does seem Hong Kong will be a central point in this ‘cold war’ between the US and China, and how this issue is resolved will be telling on the future of US and China relations.

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China

US and China: The Thucydides Trap.

The big news yesterday was the US Senate passing a bill which allows for the delisting of a Chinese company if they fail to meet US security regulations. As many of you probably know, China does not use the standard GAAP rules for accounting. They also do not follow a lot of the US’ regulations on listing.

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Oil

Oil Daily Reversal Pattern Confirmed. Long Positions are Killing It.

A few weeks back, I teased another oil set up, after we ripped the face off of oil on the 4 hour chart. We were long oil on the break of above 17.95, confirming a double bottom pattern, and we took our profits at around the 28.00 zone. A good target as it was a major resistance/flip zone which attracts price like a magnet. 

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Federal Reserve

The Fed to the Rescue!

The lesson here is to not fight against the Fed or the central banks for that matter. They will continue to prop and introduce other programs to keep assets propped. They will do whatever is necessary and print as much money as they must eventually reaching the status of last buyer of everything. The balance sheet will balloon. The question going forward is how large can they grow it until a confidence crisis begins?

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Silver

Silver Breakout! Momentum to Follow?

I like Silver because of what is going to be happening with Gold, and the fact that Silver has a higher correlation with Gold. People like Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor Jones, and Stanley Druckenmiller have been long Gold. The argument is that Gold is the best CURRENCY out there and it is the best risk off asset.

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Dow Jones

Dow Jones Holding Uptrend at KEY Support!

Markets are red. They are continuing the drop from two days ago. I do believe the drop two days ago was from a pullback… but I think this continuation could be from what Fed chair Powell said yesterday AND the further uncertainties over the US-China phase 1 deal which may account for nothing. But what do the charts show?

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Central Banks

Central Banks Becoming the Most Powerful Institutions in Human History?

Remember when the original mandate for central banks was to be the lender of last resort? Well they are now becoming not only the lender of last resort but also BUYERS of last resort. They will buy up everything and central bank balance sheets will balloon. They will own the world, and this process is already occurring with US Dollar swap lines being established with multiple countries, to allow them to use Dollars to buy up assets in their own country.

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Stock Markets

Stock Markets: What Now?

We discussed how the Nasdaq broke and closed above its 61.8 fibonacci level on the weekly chart and what that means for tech. The Nasdaq is now green for the year. It is more likely it will make new all time highs than create new recent lows with a close above the 61.8 fibonacci.

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Nasdaq

The Nasdaq is Green for the Year

The Nasdaq has been the leading index. In fact, we are now GREEN on year to date for the Nasdaq. All the losses have been wiped out. We are back at the recent highs…with a break and close here establishing momentum to the next level which would be previous all time highs.

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oil

Oil Long Contrarian Trade Hits Take Profit Level $$

Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian, and it certainly did for me. Over on the discord channel, I have been speaking about the contrarian long oil trade. Yes, I did acknowledge that on May 19th, when June futures expire, there is the possibility of another 0 to negative oil price if the storage situation is not solved.

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GDX Retest Very Positive for the Gold Miners

We have been following the GDX for quite some time. Two weeks ago, I spoke about the break out on the weekly chart. Last week we re-tested the breakout zone, seeing there are buyers still stepping in. The chart featured in this blog is the daily chart. Very exciting. I want to show you all the re-test and how it created an engulfing candle.

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Buffett on Delta Airlines: Rekt

Obviously with Warren Buffett selling off his Delta position, naturally everyone will be talking about airlines this week. Let us take a look at the JETS ETF featured in this post. This ETF is another chart we have been following with the potential of a reversal. We liked the large down trend move with multiple lower highs and lower lows, and then liked the bottoming pattern here. We were originally looking for a double bottom pattern, but this did not occur.

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Stock Markets Now At Make Or Break Level

The month of April 2020 was the BEST month for US stock markets since 1987. Think about this for a minute. Over 30 million people in America have been laid off, the unemployment rate is over 10%, the economy is dead, manufacturing and GDP data is coming out terrible yet markets are up.

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Bitcoin Trade Hit Our Target!

We have been watching the Bitcoin chart these past few weeks, and last week over on the discord channel, I spoke about the breakout which occurred. This zone that we broke out of was new highs on the 4 hour chart, but also was a very important zone on the daily chart.

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How we are Playing Oil: XLE, XEG

Over on the discord chat, our trade ideas have been on fire. With the equities, with bitcoin, and now it seems with oil. To be clear, I am not touching the oil CFD’s or futures. Just too volatile with moves sometimes over 20% a day in either direction.

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The Economy Reopening Euphoria Stock Index Play

So the chart looks good for the Russell 2000. Any fundamental news to aid us? Well yes. Two in fact. First of all, we do have the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision tomorrow. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged (although already talks of negative rates), but what traders really want to hear is how much.

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spy

Fed Week to Boost Stock Markets?

It’s Fed/FOMC week, and many already know what the Fed will be doing, it is a matter of how much. The Fed Fund Futures is showing no change, with rates to be kept at 0.25%. It is all about how much more easing the Fed will announce. More cheap money, more money printing to keep the system propped and going.

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Wait…I didn’t have any Corn!

On the technical side, there is a lot of excitement to look forward to on corn. A lot of confluences here pointing to a move higher. First of all, we are at a major support zone, indicated by the big blue zone I have. If you zoom out on the daily or weekly chart, you will see how important this zone is. We tested this support zone in 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2014 and then 2016 and it held.

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“The Fed can’t print Gold”

Bank of America gave the Gold bugs some joy with their call of Gold breaking above all time highs of Gold/USD of 1900 and having a target between 2000-3000 per ounce. Once again, a lot of the fundamental reasons I mentioned above are present. Bank of America titled the report “The Fed can’t print Gold”.

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Stock Markets now Ready to Roll Over?

In past Market Moment posts, I have mentioned this large resistance zone on the daily chart. We were looking for either a break out higher, or some sort of pattern to indicate a new down trend wave. So far we have been ranging here.

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Oil: WTF is Going On?

Near the end we would be down 99.95% on the CFD chart for USOIL with price at 0.01 while May Futures for Oil hit close to -40, down well over 200%. In a world where most thought negative interest rates were crazy, this definitely eclipses that. Just think about that for a second. Negative Oil prices.

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Will the Nasdaq Make All Time Record Highs?

Since the weekly candle has now closed above the 61.8 fibonacci level. according to fibonacci rules, the downtrend is now nullified and we should not be looking for a lower high to form. It would take another black swan event to cause a large fall from here. Essentially, just looking at price action alone, it is more probable that we will hit all time record highs rather than new lower lows.

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GDX on the Verge of a Breakout? New Bull Trend for Gold Miners Ahead

As price drifted downwards, we bounced at a flip zone at 17.20 and are now back at the resistance zone. First of all, the bounce back to resistance is a good sign for an eventual break out. There were some sell offs, as indicated by the candle wicks, but nonetheless we made it back. Very strong and positive price action.

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The Nasdaq is Leading: Amazon All Time Record Highs!

The Nasdaq has quite clearly been leading. A lot of this has to do with Amazon hitting all time record highs, but other tech stocks have been seeing a bid. Investors are jumping in because most of the big tech companies have enough money to stave away this lock down. Not many are furloughing employees, and do not require government money.

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Can Oil still be Propped Up after IMF Forecast?

On the daily chart, there is another option. Yes, if we break and close below the 19.50 zone, we would make another wave lower. However, it seems the trend here could possibly be exhausting. Is it possible to see buyers step in here or close to here, and put their stop losses just below? Or is it possible we may create a double bottom pattern (creating a “W” shape showing us a reversal)? 

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Nevada Copper (NCU) Double Bottom to Trigger with Copper Break?

So with copper technicals looking good on the chart, I looked for a Canadian junior chart that is also showing a bottoming pattern which could rise while the copper chart is moving higher. The chart for Nevada Copper (NCU) is showing a quintessential bottoming pattern called the double bottom. It looks exactly as it sounds.

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US Midcap Index Breakout…But Why?

We have our breakout on the 4 hour chart and this pattern can be described as a cup and handle pattern. Very simply, a cup and handle looks like the body of a cup, and then a small handle being formed on the right side (Follow the blue arrows I drew). This is significant because the right handle gives us the break out which confirms also a higher low swing level signifying the beginnings of an up trend.

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Supreme Cannabis (FIRE.TO) Cup and Handle Reversal Pattern?

As equity markets continue their roller coaster ride (what a ride yesterday-up 1000 points only to sell it off), there are still some equity plays that I am keeping an eye out on, as they adhere to market structure. In simple terms they move in three cycles: an uptrend, a range, and a downtrend. There are definitely some charts that have been in a prolonged downtrend, and are now giving us signals of a new uptrend.

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US Equities Breakout Confirmed

The area of support that markets held for three long days last week has held. And I mean it held. This analysis holds true for all three major US equities (the S&P, Nasdaq and the Dow: pictured here). Narratives change very quickly, and apparently markets too. Near the end of last week, President Trump spoke about how these next few weeks will be horrible. How we should be prepared for lots of death. There was even a comparison at one of the covid briefings of this time period being a new Pearl Harbour like event.

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HIVE Blockchain to Start New Uptrend on Bitcoin Breakout?

Last week, I spoke about the breakout on the Bitcoin chart, and during our Market Moment recording, I mentioned how this may have turned out to be a fake out because we got a red engulfing candle rather than follow through. I did want to see how Bitcoin moved during the weekend, if a larger sell off would occur. Well we just ranged near the resistance level. And now today…

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Bitcoin Fakeout to Breakout

We were watching Bitcoin yesterday on the Discord channel, and it seemed like price was going to break out. This is a great lesson on patience and waiting for trigger signals. Price action did show a break above this level, but before the candle closed to confirm the signal, we sold off and closed UNDER the resistance zone of 6870. Twelve hours later, we finally got the break and closed above the resistance zone.

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Oil Double Bottom Reversal?

Let’s face it. Nobody is bullish on oil. It is apparent that a recession is around the corner, and with many people around the world confined to their homes, they will not be driving too often. We know the US supply is increasing (yesterday’s storage numbers came above 13 million) while demand is decreasing. Oil producing nations and companies will continue to pump more. The oil producing nations have incentive here. If they know a recession is coming, you would want to pump as much oil as you can at these prices to make as much money that you can.

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Something Different: Wheat

Moving down to the 4 hour chart, and we can see there are more confluences pointing to a possible downside move, and indeed, presents us with a trigger set up. Just looking at market structure here, it shows us an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. We have had more than two swings which is what we want to look for.

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Equity Guru’s Market Moment March.23rd/2020

As we begin this morning, we have received an amazing pledge by the US Federal Reserve. They have pledged unlimited asset purchases to support markets. This is from the monetary side, what is next will come from the fiscal side. Traders are awaiting for the US Congress to pass the relief program, a bill that was turned down yesterday before markets opened, prompting a sell off and market futures to halt (limit down) just as futures opened. Once we get the combination of both the monetary and the fiscal side, we should expect to see some sort of basing in markets.

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Equity Guru’s Market Moment March.20th/2020

On February 21st 2020, I announced the break down of a pattern on the S&P…but was not expecting an almost 30% decline. We did actually play the downside on the pullbacks and confirmed lower high swings on the daily chart, as the market was clearly in a downtrend and we did not want to go against this.

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