How much will Pfizer (PFE.Q) and Moderna (MRNA.Q) profit from COVID-19 vaccine development?

04/01/2021

Pfizer & Moderna – two very different companies

President Biden’s goal to vaccinate between 70% and 85% of the U.S. population, which is roughly 230 million – 280 million people.

Around 33 million out of about 331 million Americans have received at least their first dose of Pfizer (PFE.Q)‘s or Moderna(MRNA.Q)‘s two-dose Covid-19 vaccines so far, with 9.8 million of those people getting their second dose as well. Clinical trial data shows Pfizer‘s and Moderna’s vaccines are highly effective, but just under half of adults in the U.S. surveyed in December said they were very likely to get vaccinated, according to a new study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is far below the 70%-85% many scientists say needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and suppress the virus. The speed in the development of the COVID vaccines has optimists excited for scientific progress, but have skeptics wondering how they made it so fast, and if it’s truly safe, and Marjorie Taylor Greene is doing half-assed pullups to fight the virus.

Big pharma has been one of the key contributors to the drug war by influencing and pressuring doctors to overprescribe medications, namely opiates. Companies made a killing giving people medicines they probably didn’t need and were lenient on patients abusing that medication as long as it meant they were coming back for more. Trust in big pharma is at an all-time low, but they have a chance to redeem themselves a bit here. And while COVID vaccines may cause some to hate big pharma less, Wall Street has always loved the pusher man.

Revive’s (RVV.C) Bucillamine Covid-19 treatment advances through development pipeline

Wall Street analysts are projecting Pfizer and Moderna will generate $32B USD in Covid-19 vaccine revenue — next year alone. Pfizer alone is projected to haul in $15B-$19B USD in COVID vaccine revenue in 2021, which’s on top of their previous projected $975 million in 2020 vaccine revenue. Pfizer expects to make 2 billion doses of the coronavirus vaccine in 2021. The profits don’t end when most of the West gets vaccinated. Pfizer is also expected to generate $9.3B USD more in combined Covid-19 vaccine revenue in 2022 and 2023 as more countries around the world receive vaccines. Unfortunately, as it’s baked into the capitalist system – the richer countries nabbed the lion’s share of the supply agreements. It’s to be expected.

The vaccine breakthrough has not bumped Pfizer’s share price. The drugmaker is already a huge company, and while the COVID vaccine is a huge project, this is an established company that has been here before. Despite the vaccine efforts and projected revenues, last year the company missed on its earnings targets. Pfizer’s shares are up just 12% this year.

Moderna is a completely different story than Pfizer.

Moderna is expected to rake in $13.2 billion in Covid-19 vaccine revenue next year, according to Goldman Sachs, up from just $60M last year. Investors believe that achievement validates Moderna’s mRNA technology, which seeks to take advantage of normal biological processes to create a desired therapeutic effect.

Messenger ribonucleuc acid, or mRNA for short, plays a vital role in human biology, specifically in a process known as protein synthesis. mRNA is a single-stranded molecule that carries genetic code from DNA in a cell’s nucleus to ribosomes, the cell’s protein-making machinery.

Moderna has said it will not enforce its patents on the vaccine for the duration of the pandemic, but it hasn’t made the same commitment for the intellectual property connected with its messenger RNA technology, the key to the COVID vaccine. Moderna raised $1.34B USD last year on the back of its mRNA technology and platform, incredible as the company had zero FDA-approved products and negative cash flow as recently as 2019, according to their pitch deck.

Wall Street now has much more confidence in Moderna’s speed, and their entire future product pipeline, betting that this won’t be the company’s only big hit, and the chart reflects that.

Not every company is out to suck profits dr. Rival drugmakers Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.Qand AstraZeneca (AZN.Q) have promised to make their vaccines available on a not-for-profit basis during the pandemic.

Cost of anti-vax

A recent poll of New Yorkers shows significant hesitancy in minority communities. The poll, conducted by the Association for a Better New York, found that 78% of White residents would take the vaccine as soon as they could compared to 39% of Black residents, 54% of Hispanics, and 54% of Asians.

This sentiment has been going long before COVID, and while we can’t calculate the costs of the anti-vax movement on COVID, based on the number of residents unwilling to receive the vaccine, it’s going to be costly, and herd immunity may be difficult, or impossible if the numbers don’t change.

According to a 2015 study from UNC’s Eshelman School of Pharmacy, vaccine-preventable diseases among adults cost the U.S. economy $8.95 billion — and unvaccinated individuals are responsible for 80%, or $7.1 billion, of the bill. The report highlights that the biggest money drag is the flu (influenza), costing some $5.8B USD in 2015 alone.

Those costs are being paid by state governments, agencies like the CDC that give states grants and loan them personnel. State and federal budgets are public money, so this is our tax dollars at work. Even measles has been making a comeback in recent years as more parents are averse to vaccinating their children.

It’s not within the scope of this piece to dive into anti-vax theories, that being that, minorities (especially in America) have had a troubling past with this topic – and I can understand why there would be some skepticism, for the Marjorie Taylor Greene’s of the world I really don’t get it, I think it’s just more of a freedom/libertarian thing.

Marjorie Taylor Green Ayahuasca Retreat

Whenever I think of anti-vax stuff I always go back to Thailand.

A few years ago I was living in somewhat of a shamanic cult in Thailand. Full of mystics, shamans, yogis, healers, and everything in between, this place was out there. Reiki, quantum leaping, ayahuasca, ice bathing, steam room, raw vegan food – all in a beautiful 5-star setting. But no matter how much you meditated, one danger that was inescapable – motorbikes.

Motorbiking in Thailand is extremely dangerous as Thailand has the 2nd highest road fatalities in the world, with a large portion of those deaths from bikers. One dude in the commune, one of the really out-there spiritual ones got into a bad bike accident and his leg was cut open pretty bad. He was icing it for days and doing weird meditations, refusing to seek medicine. He assured as his leg turned purple that there was a new moon cycle coming, and that he had the right combination of crystals that would heal the now awfully infected wound. He refused to get anti-biotics and almost lost his leg as a result of it, Marjorie Taylor Greene would be proud.

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